"King Solomon's Dilemma and Behavioral Economics"

Can't help quoting this one. It shows how far economists are willing to go to challenge conventional 'wisdom'. Makes very good teaching material.

Let's think about this. The "mechanism" (game) designed by Solomon proposes to split the baby in two (sounds "fair" at least). One women screams out "No! Let the other have the whole baby instead." The other woman coldly agrees to the solution. The real mother is revealed in the obvious manner. What is not so obvious is why the false mother could not have anticipated this outcome; a more clever woman would have simply mimicked the behavior of the true mother. Instead, the false mother fails to make this calculation (and instead adopts a simple "behavioral" strategy; which is just a fancy label for irrational behavior).

Read the full article at MacroMania.

Music Sharing: Pirate or Explorer? (II)

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I read about the new interface of Google's music search service in China today on Aw's blog (link in Chinese). This brought my attention to this service which was established a (long?) while ago.

It is remarkable that the new interface enables people to discover music according to certain criteria, such as tempo, pitch, and tone. Genre and language filters are also available. But this is hardly amazing in this modern world. What surprises me is that Google offers music downloads, too. This is the search result for Onmyo-za, my favorite band at this time, who are unfortunately not really popular at least in Mainland, and Google still has 8 album entries for this band. Download quality is at 192 kbps, a rate at which compressed music is transparent to most ears.

Google is offering the music download in cooperation with top100.cn. According to their vision statement, the site intends not only to let users discover and download music, but to lead to music related purchases. Considering that they are in partnership with such big names as China Mobile and Google, the actual income from music sales might not be that important to this site. Therefore, it seems questionable if this free download model is a sensible business model by itself.

Where is the American Nanny?

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It is a modern fable in China: an American nanny bought a house for herself on mortgage, and paid off her debt when she died; a Chinese nanny, on the contrary, saved up all her life and bought a house when she died. The result? The American nanny worked all her life and enjoyed her housing, while the Chinese nanny worked all her life to buy a house that she had no chance to live in.

The wisdom is that one should borrow and consume, and worry about payments later. The Americans have done this all along, while the Chinese are gradually shaking off their saving habits. The assumption is that the ability to pay is guaranteed for life. And of course, we all assume that when we need to borrow money, we can always find a lender.

If I wrote this a year ago, I might still thought that the above assumptions were right, and I might wish to have an American life-style myself. But now? Where is the American nanny before she dies? We come to realize that the ability to pay is not guaranteed, and that if the Chinese nanny doesn't save in the first place, the American nanny may well find it hard to get a mortgage.

Mark Thoma asked "Who's the Villain in the Crisis?" Now what do you think? The American nanny who borrowed too much? The Chinese nanny who saved up too much for the American nanny to borrow? The broker who channeled the savings?

Music Sharing: Pirate or Explorer? (I)

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I'm not sure how many of you still remember Napster. Not the Napster paysite as it is today, but its predecessor, the free mp3-sharing website. The site used to enable users to share and download free digital music, and was so successful that it sent Radiohead atop the Billboard, and brought itself a lot of legal trouble, too, and in 2001, Napster had to shut down its service.

That Napster is dead, but its spirit lives on (not in the resurrected paid service). Online P2P music sharing carries on, and the nature of this mass piracy makes it very hard to criminalize anyone (Fa Bu Ze Zhong, as the old Chinese saying goes). One of the new upstarts in the business is this Coda.fm, which I overheard from MakeUseOf.com. The admin of Coda.fm openly admits that the service is under legal threats, but says that the site intends to resist the pressure in an attempt to bring about change in the music industry. But the exactly proposition to change is not very clear, or actionable--as long as law makers do not catch the service, it is for the music labels to worry about the possible changes. And according to the interviewed Coda.fm admin, music label is "a middleman that should be gone soon". With this posture, one might reasonably believe that no solution, except for the disappearance of either the labels, or of Coda.fm, will eventually come about before the fragile and embarrassing status quo breaks.

I recently heard of a similar service which goes a bit further in the quest of solutions. The service, called Xiami, is based in China, where intellectual property rights (especially of those totally intagible goods) are not well exercised. Despite this background, Xiami says, in response to customer request, that they share the download revenue with artists. The business model is one that encourages music upload and P2P sharing by rewards of Xiami web assets (which might be convertible to RMB, according to plan), charges the same web assets for downloads, and facilitates the purchase of Xiami assets with real RMB. Very good model, except that exactly how much is paid to the artist is unknown to the public. And considering that a lot of music shared on the website is foreign based, it is doubtful whether Xiami can guarantee their pay-the-artist model 100%. A few users fear that the Xiami's model will mean that the legal liability lies entirely with the uploader, and since Xiami does not host any music files, it will abondon its user in potential legal disputes. Many P2P sharing sites are hiding behind the same shield; and as there are too many users (copyright law offenders), legal punishment will become impossible. However, I would say that the case with Xiami is a bit different, as the service may try to directly profit from music sharing activities, making them liable to related accusations. The good things is that once the service is monetized, there will be room for negotiation with music labels, and a mutually acceptable solution will become more likely (compared to Coda.fm). So will they be an explorer in the terra incognita of the future music land? Or are they still pirates as I fear? Maybe they'll end up as a privateer...

Sakura + Kimono: Still Problematic in China

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It is spring time and sakura, not only in Tokyo, but in China too, is flowering. A mother with her daughter dressed up in kimono (Japanese traditional clothing) and took photos under some flowering cherry trees the other day in Wuhan University, and they were, unfortunately but almost inevitably, ill-received by the passers-by.

The on-lookers felt especially offended by the wearing of kimono, which may be too "Japanese" for the liking of most of Chinese. It is not perhaps as offensive as a few Japanese military uniforms reminiscent of WWII, but it is still too much.

The media is almost uniformly opposed to the on-lookers, saying that it is only excessive and unnecessary patriotism. Neither sakura nor kimono are related the WWII crimes, and should be given considerations as such.

I am, of course, in support of the media on this issue, but I, too, find this sakura/kimono combination too much for me. I do not hate the Japanese, especially not the current generation; I am learning the Japanese language in the hope that I can view the civilization in a more educated manner. However, at this stage I still have some "nerves" against the Japanese; I wish that it could go away, but it is there. Similarly, I believe that none of the on-lookers in Wuhan University are really that anti-Japanese as to get themselves completely insulate from the Japanese culture. In this age it is too hard. We buy Japanese electronics, use Japanese cosmetics, view Japanese TV series, and read Japanese comic books. Tension still exists, but understanding is growing, and tolerance brewing. Therefore, no one will likely to scold you for viewing sakura, for taking photos of sakura with Canon cameras, or for similar activities related to Japan. However, unfortunately, wearing kimono to the scene is still not quite accepted, and with a little understanding of the opinions of the Chinese people at large, such embarrassment can be avoided.

The mother and daughter said that they had no special intentions. They just thought that wearing kimono under sakura trees was beautiful. So indeed, it is avoidable, as the kimono served no particular important purpose. The mother and daughter did not do anything "wrong"; just that they should have known better.

Now I am writing to the Westerners' dismay, because my suggestion is so undemocratic. But remember: China has always been a collective society (and Japan too), and collective opinions are not to be taken lightly. Just as the US youth do not understand the sadness in someone traveling alone (according to the experience of Haruki Murakami, if I remember correctly), it is OK for the West not to understand the Chinese emphasis on the collective over the individual.

But NOW is a good time to start to understand.

And believe me, just as it is now nothing big to talk about Takuya Kimura in adoration, it will be acceptable to wear kimono to "hanami" in China as well, sooner or later. It is happening. Just wait.

P.S.
Just came across this piece on IHT. Some Westerners do seem to understand collectivism and hold it rather high. Also, this Britannica Blog entry on loneliness by Peter Augustine Lawler is distantly related. I'm amazed how quickly related articles got my attention after this post.

Personality Quiz

I took the 43 Things Personality Quiz and found out I'm a

Traveling Creative Self-Knower

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This is by far the least accurate quiz I've taken! Perhaps I misled the quiz designer by ticking the "lived in another country" box. I, however, lived in England for one year for my academic study, and wasn't very satisfied with the lifestyle... Other than this experience, I absolutely dislike the kind of "traveling" which everyone seems to enjoy. I don't like to go to random beautiful places, and I don't like to take photos of random beautiful scenery. I go to new places for food, or to experience my (Wikipedia) reading in real life. This is the reason why I enthusiastically explored the Temple Church twice and took many photos.

By the way, the most accurate test I've taken is the MBTI, multiple times at different places, and have always been an NTP. Recently I switched from INTP to ENTP! But I'd say that I'm actually something in between. Anyway, the I/ENTP's do have an interesting way of life, and is very productive at the same time, about which I'm preparing to blog a lot!

Funny Post and Paranoid Chinese Software End Users

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The Post

Take a look at this web page: http://bbs.pcpop.com/070604/876055.html
The topic reads, "MP3切割工具——MP3 DirectCut绿色破解版免费下载" (MP3 splitter--MP3 DirectCut green cracked version free download).
Now on the homepage of MP3 DirectCut it reads, "Download mp3DirectCut: 190 KB · simple installer (selfextracting zip) · Freeware". So it is indeed free, and there is no need for a crack. I remember it being green also, but it does not really matter, for the software is not loaded with junk and can be uninstalled cleanly.

The funny thing is how the words Green, Free, and Cracked are emphasized over the Chinese download community. It is like that no one wishes to distribute their software for Free; if they don't, then all you have to do is to have it Cracked; if they do, then the software package certainly will not be Green, and will surely be loaded with adware and spyware and the like. Therefore, even this wonderful little program called "MP3 DirectCut" is free and clean by itself, there is still need to assure downloaders that it is Free, Cracked (as if to make sure it is quality and Clean software). The average Chinese computer users have to worry about all these. Without understanding the circumstances of the Chinese downloading community, this will look utterly pointless.

The Reflection

This is a reflection of the sad truth in the software industry in China. Proprietary software does not sell, and free (as in "free beer") software does not come clean. It is understandable that the consumers would wish to save and the producers would wish to make money, but it is astonishing that for the most of us, the demand and supply curves does not form a market equilibrium--I doubt that they meet.

Starting from Windows 95, I have turned to the free (as in "free beer and free speech") world of GNU/Linux, and currently run an Arch Linux installation. I have been a minor non-programmer contributor to the Linux world for some time now. The equilibrium has worked for me quite well so far, although not perfectly, because the world at large is Windows. I cannot say that it will work well for all the others, especially for the majority of the Chinese who are not willing to pay the price as it is set. The market theory tells that demand and supply will work out an acceptable price, but it does not tell us why for so long (more than 10 years?) the price is still not acceptable in China.

We need a change.

And the one line above is just empty words. If I do have a better way, I myself might become a millionaire based just on that :P

We all need to think hard about it. Not just live with it. Live with it and change it for the better.

Afterwit--the 'How' Is More Important

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I recently did a cleanup, and found something interesting. A news printout from the International Herald Tribune (IHT), or 'Gore attacks Bush's policy on Iraq, saying it hurts nation', dated Sep. 25, 2002, by Dan Baiz of the Washington Post. (Just checked, and this article is somehow missing from the IHT archive.)

Back then, I used news articles like this one to train my English reading. Opposition to the war played a minor part in the choice of this particular article. Now it seems to be fate that I made the choice, since Gore's speech reads like a prophecy.

By shifting from his early focus after Sep. 11 on war against terrorism to war against Iraq, the president has manifestly disposed of the sympathy, goodwill and solidarity compiled by American and transformed it into a sense of deep misgiving and even hostility.

How true. I was never positively thrilled by the disaster of Sep. 11, as opposed to the feeling of many Chinese when the incident occurred. I don't remember having any conscious disagreement to the war against the Taliban, despite the funny history of how the Taliban came into power. I would choice to dislike Saddam if I was asked to make a choice (although it was not my concern), and though I was not a fan of the Bush administration ever since they decided not to honour the Kyoto Protocol, I was to some degree with the US since Sep. 11. But not after the start of the Iraqi War.

But I'm not going to make any more moral judgments on Bush or the past US administration. Moral standards are difficult to handle, especially in international politics.

The point is that people knew the War was wrong, and did not stop it from taking place. In 2002 there were of course arguments, and arguments went on while decisions were being made. Only six years later does a clear judgment come forward, and Bush was mostly wrong. One cannot but feel that this comes too late.

It is all possible that Gore attacked Bush out of partisanship. This review from the Economist's View is more revealing, but maybe Paul Krugman can also be ignored for being partisan? After all, Dick Cheney is now attacking Obama, and who knows? Maybe he's right?...

Yet I would say NO to Cheney, though I do not yet know if Obama is doing the right thing against terrorism. Although I admit that judgments are hard to make, especially concerning things that has not yet happened, it is relatively easy to spot the fault; and the fault in the Bush administration is their conservative origin--to idealistic to deal with reality. Such moral arrogance was also present in the North Korean talks. And now Cheney is not ready to give it up.

I'd very much like someone to share their way of foreseeing the "truth", but at least for now, this is still mission impossible for me. However, this should not prevent people from trying their best at making decisions, as long as they are dealing with the real world, and not just fancies.

In Google I trust?

Having been thinking about moving out of Microsoft Live Space for a long time--the interface is too slow and too ugly for my liking. Moved to wordpress.com.cn a while ago, but later found out that the site is not actually affiliated with Wordpress. And wordpress.com? Inaccessible behind the wall.

I'm a bit scared at putting almost everyone of the services I use under the banner of Google, but it does provide almost every web service that I need, with aesthetics, with responsibility, and hopefully, with a well managed relationship with the Chinese authority for as long as I can foresee.

So I finally decided to move most of my English blogging to Google, knowing that it would be quite easy to migrate to Wordpress when I have the time and money to get a hosting service. This move to Google is not the first one, and perhaps will not be the last one.

My heart did not rest well when Bloglines seemed to have gone down and I finally had to move my feeds over to Google Reader. Google is growing into a good-willed monopoly, and while the monopoly does not go away easily, good-will often does. But what choice do I have? Especially over wordpress.com... Feels almost like the good old Windows piracy marketing.